American car buyers are hitting the brakes this November, as new vehicle sales are expected to tumble by nearly 8% compared to last year, according to a stark forecast from automotive industry giant Cox Automotive.
The Atlanta-based company’s latest market analysis, released November 25, paints a sobering picture of the nation’s auto retail landscape. Sales volume is projected to drop to 1.27 million units this month, marking a 1% decline from October’s figures and a significant 7.8% nosedive from November 2023’s performance.
“Sales volume is expected to fall to 1.27 million, down 1% from October and 7.8% from last year’s finish,” Cox Automotive stated in their report. “November has 25 selling days, two fewer than last month and down one from last year, which accounts for some of the expected volume decline.”
The downturn reflects mounting pressure on American consumers as vehicle prices continue their upward trajectory. Industry economists point to a complex web of factors contributing to the sales slump, with trade policy implications playing a significant role in reshaping the automotive marketplace.
As tariffed products increasingly replace existing non-tariffed inventory on dealer lots, vehicle prices are being pushed higher across the board. This price inflation is creating a direct correlation with slower sales volumes, as consumers find themselves priced out of new vehicle purchases or choosing to delay buying decisions altogether.
The electric vehicle segment, once viewed as a bright spot for industry growth, is also experiencing a notable deceleration. The cooling EV market represents another headwind for overall industry performance, as manufacturers had been counting on electric models to drive sales momentum.
The November sales forecast underscores broader economic concerns affecting the automotive sector. With fewer selling days in the month compared to both October and the previous year, dealers are facing a compressed timeline to move inventory during what is typically a challenging period for car sales.
This sales decline comes at a critical time for the automotive industry, which has been navigating supply chain disruptions, changing consumer preferences, and evolving regulatory landscapes. The nearly 8% year-over-year drop signals that recovery from recent market volatility may be more prolonged than initially anticipated.
For consumers, the current market conditions present a mixed scenario. While slower sales might eventually lead to increased incentives from manufacturers and dealers, the immediate reality is that vehicle affordability remains a significant challenge for many American households.
The automotive industry will be closely watching December sales figures to determine whether November’s decline represents a temporary setback or the beginning of a more sustained downturn heading into 2025.
